Gästebuch » I’m pretty sure the Royals won’t be making the play

offs in 2019 but http://www.bravesfanproshop.com/authentic-nick-markakis-jersey , someone from the Central has to."The PECOTA projections for the Kansas City Royals show some significant improvement from 2018. The Royals figure to be a much more competitive team in 2019 than they were in 2018, when they were the second-worst team in all of baseball. However, improvement from being the second-worst team in baseball still means a projection of just 71 wins and a third-place finish in the AL Central.The AL Central figures to be pretty awful in 2019. If you add up the projected wins of all five teams in all six divisions, here’s how they would rank:NL Central - 417NL East - 415NL West - 410AL East - 405AL West - 401AL Central - 388The gap between the AL West (5th) and the AL Central (6th) is bigger than the gap between the NL Central (1st) and the AL East (4th). The AL Central is going to be awfully non-competitive in 2019, and if the Cleveland Indians falter at all (I’d run to the bank to bet they don’t win their projected 97 games), the AL Central could get interesting. The Royals don’t figure to be world beaters in 2019, but given that they’ll play 76 of their 162 games against AL Central opponents, their record could be better than people think.The big question for the Kansas City Royals will be this: “If the Cleveland Indians struggle, can we win enough games to make it interesting?” I think we would almost unanimously agree that the answer is no, but I think it could get closer than we think. Let’s take a quick look at a roster comparison so I can show you what I mean.CatcherThis is easy, right? Salvador Perez, his five Gold Glove awards and two Silver Slugger awards, versus Roberto Perez, who was worth -0.7 fWAR in 2018, and Kevin Plawecki, who was worth 0.6 fWAR in 2018. Steamer Projections:Perez/Gallagher - 3.5 fWARPerez/Plawecki - 1.7 fWAREdge: RoyalsFirst BaseFirst base is a bit tricky to predict here. If Ryan O’Hearn is even a shell of his 2018 self in 2019, the Royals have a significant advantage here. Assuming he regresses a bit, I’m a fan of Carlos Santana’s. I’m going to be safe and assume the combination of Santana and Bauers is more productive than O’Hearn, but would you be at all surprised if O’Hearn was almost equally as productive at season’s end?Steamer Projections:O’Hearn - 0.3 fWARSantana/Bauers - 3 fWAREdge: IndiansSecond BaseIt looks increasingly likely that Jose Ramirez will play third base for Cleveland while Jason Kipnis mans second base, but any significant time Jose Ramirez sees at second base quickly ends this discussion. Based on the depth chart at Roster Resource, however, we’re going to compare Whit Merrifield and Jason Kipnis.Whit Merrifield is the AL’s reigning hit and stolen base king coming off of a 5.2 fWAR season. Jason Kipnis hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 90 since 2016. Like the catching position, this is pretty easy.Steamer Projections:Merrifield - 2.8 fWARKipnis - 1.4 fWAREdge: RoyalsShortstopThis is where our conversation begins to take a STEEP turn North East. Cleveland has arguably the best SS in all of baseball in Francisco Lindor. He’s one of my favorite players in the sport and he’s coming off of a 7.6 fWAR season. I don’t expect Lindor to miss much time with his calf strain, meaning his production shouldn’t be affected much. The question for Kansas City will lie in the development of Adalberto Mondesi. Mondesi posted 2.8 fWAR in his half-season’s worth of PA in 2018, meaning he was on pace for a 5.6 fWAR season. That would be an incredible season Chipper Jones Jersey , and still not close to Lindor. If Mondesi can keep the gap close, then the Royals are in business. If Mondesi regresses, which I expect he will a bit, this is a massive gap between Kansas City and Cleveland.Steamer Projections:Mondesi - 2.9 fWARLindor - 6.5 fWAREdge: IndiansThird BaseThis is by far the biggest positional gap between Cleveland and Kansas City. Cleveland has an annual MVP candidate, Kansas City has Hunter Dozier. I’m not going to waste your time here.Steamer Projections:Dozier - 0.1 fWARRamirez - 6 fWAREdge: IndiansOutfieldThe outfield gets a bit dicey. Cleveland’s outfield, with all due respect, looks like it will be pretty bad in 2019. The Royals doesn’t figure to be much better, but at least they’ll be elite defensively. The Indians figure to run out Jordan Luplow and his career -0.3 fWAR, Leonys Martin, who is coming off of his best season since 2014, Greg Allen and his career 74 wRC+, and Tyler Naquin, who I actually like a bit, despite the fact that he hasn’t been good since 2016.The Royals, while not much better, at least offer the prospect of being the best defensive outfield in baseball. Alex Gordon rebounded a bit in 2018 after a horrid 2017, Billy Hamilton and Leonys Martin offer something of a wash in CF, and Brett Phillips was actually worth more fWAR than Naquin in 2018 in similar PA despite Phillips’ 49 wRC+. Plus, the Royals have Jorge Soler coming back to them as well.There’s a pretty fair chance that the Royals outfield outclasses Cleveland pound-for-pound until July, which represents something of an issue for Kansas City. Cleveland will theoretically be in a position to improve at the deadline, while Kansas City might be selling. We can’t very well predict that, but it will almost certainly play a factor.Steamer Projections:Gordon/Soler/Hamilton/Goodwin/Phillips - 3.4 fWARLuplow/Martin/Naquin/Allen/Zimmer - 2.6 fWAREdge: RoyalsTotal Position Player fWAR per Steamer Projections:Despite a three-three tie in positional battles, Lindor and Ramirez clearly separate Cleveland from Kansas City in terms of cumulative value. However, 0.4 combined fWAR for Dozier and O’Hearn feels low, and I have a feeling the Royals could make some ground up if those two outperform their Steamer Projections.Kansas City - 13 fWARCleveland - 21.2 fWAREdge: Indians*Warning: The next section could get ugly.*Starting RotationThe Cleveland Indians have one of the best rotations in baseball. The Kansas City Royals do not. To be clear John Smoltz Jersey , I think the Royals rotation has a chance to be much better than expected, maybe even league average. But the rotation that the Indians project to run out there could be a top five rotation in all of baseball. This one won’t be close, unless the Indians trade one of their starters, which has actually been rumored some this off-season (I have no idea why). Steamer Projections:Duffy/Junis/Keller/Kennedy/Lopez: 6.5 fWARKluber/Bauer/Carrasco/Clevinger/Bieber: 19.7 fWAREdge: IndiansBullpenThe bullpen is another place where I think KC could potentially edge out Cleveland. Cleveland’s bullpen doesn’t figure to be awful, but it’s a far cry from what it used to be. The Royals bullpen was awful in 2018, but the removal of three of baseball’s worst relievers should create addition by subtraction. If Richard Lovelady, Josh Staumont, and Kyle Zimmer all see significant big league time in 2019, the Royals bullpen has a chance to be above average.Steamer Projections:McWilliams/Ellis/McCarthy/Hill/Zimmer/Peralta/Flynn/Boxberger: 1.2 RA9-WARHand/Cimber/Edwards/Goody/Olson/Otero/Ramirez/Perez: 2.9 RA9-WAR*Disclaimer: WAR is a terrible way to judge a reliever. It should not be used on it’s own.*Edge: TieConclusionWhat was the point of all this? 1,200 words later and the Royals still aren’t going to compete for the playoffs in 2019. Here’s the thing. I firmly believe the Royals could be competitive with Cleveland if they wanted to. Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, and Mike Moustakas are all available via free agency. I think the Royals could easily afford to pay two of those players and drastically improve at two positions. The Cleveland Indians are going to win the AL Central as it stands right now, but much of that is due to the fact that the AL Central figures to be downright awful in 2019. The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers are both rebuilding. The Twins figure to begin turning the corner but they’re also rebuilding. The Royals are obviously rebuilding. Only the Cleveland Indians are going to even pretend to compete, and because the rest of the division is so bad, they’ve even thought about SELLING.I left the Twins out of this for a reason. If the Royals are to be any kind of competitive in the division, they’re gonna have to be better than the Twinkies. Are the Royals as good as Cleveland? No. Is Cleveland a super team that can’t be contended with? Absolutely not. If the Royals want us to believe they can “win now,” and that this isn’t a rebuild, now would be the perfect time for them to put their money where their mouth is. Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez playing in Kauffman Stadium would be awfully intriguing. Tyler Durna has been a reliable hitter and fielder at South Bend. The Cubs need guys like this."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Chicago Cubs recapsChicago Cubs minor leaguesChicago Cubs essaysChicago Cubs game threadsWrigley Field renovationsFull archiveLibrary Bleed Cubbie Blue Community GuidelinesCurrent time in ChicagoBCB Specials & Site InfoWinter 2019 music threadsCubs StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Cubs newsYahoo Cubs team pageYahoo Cubs reportYahoo Cubs depth chartYahoo Cubs transactionsYahoo Cubs photosOdds Shop About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub 鉁旵hicago Cubs minor leaguesCubs Pipeline Alchemy: First things firstNew,4commentsTyler Durna has been a reliable hitter and fielder at South Bend. The Cubs need guys like this.CDTShareTweetShareShareCubs Pipeline Alchemy: First things firstTyler DurnaSouth Bend CubsSuch to the extent that most baseball fans contemplate the June draft at all, it’s often about the first few rounds. The players at the top are (rightly) thought to be the most likely to dent a MLB roster. Since the parent club is almost the exclusive interest of fans, those are the primary concerns. Players down the ticket, though, can provide specific value to an organization. This piece looks at two positive trends along those lines from last June’s Cubs draft.Many of the selections between Albert Almora Jr. (Theo Epstein’s first selection for the Cubs) and Edmond Americaan (35th round, 2018) have been to refurbish a Cubs pipeline that had been badly misused. In 2012 Matt Kemp Jersey , the hitting and pitching were well substandard at pretty much every level. It takes time to retool both sides of a pipeline. Even the well-regarded days with Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, and others banging away in the system, plenty of spots on both sides were far weaker than they should have been.The plan has largely been to get hitters first, with pitchers in bulk later. The 2016 and 2017 selection classes were primarily pitchers, as pitching still lagged. Until the pitching staff and offense are both regularly contributing when needed, the system isn’t where it’s needed to be for a fully functioning system. The Dodgers and Cardinals are there, because they have generally drafted well the last five decades. It takes getting to the point where both halves are self-sustaining, and it takes proper maintenance afterward.That has been a bit of a repeat, that I don’t think is made often enough. The Cubs pipeline has work to do still, because developing eight or nine good affiliates is hard to accomplish. As 29 other teams are trying to do the same, some years won’t work as well as others. One action the Cubs made in 2018 that has made the pipeline better is drafting a first baseman in June. No, really. The selection of Tyler Durna as a first baseman in round 15 of 2018 is the Cubs first designated first baseman signed in the draft since Kelvin Freeman in 2013 (round 17).For some college squads, the first baseman is a heart of the order masher, as it goes for them. On other teams, a freshman plays first base, then moves to another spot the next season when a different position opens up. The Cubs have recently leaned toward having catchers or infielders fill in at first, leaving the position as tenuous as the occasional DH option. Durna has been a solid and reliable hitter for South Bend, early, and has saved runs/shortened innings. He’s also a rather smart baserunner, though not necessarily fast.With minor league infielders still getting used to the speed of full-season ball, Durna has been quite useful at preventing errors for in South Bend. This gets pitchers off the mound sooner. That he’s among the leading hitters on the team upgrades the offense, as well. Where’s the downside? By opting to go with Durna, the team opted out of a similar type of pitcher Hank Aaron Jersey , or other position player. The goal is “the best draft class possible.” As other things are being upgraded every June, adding a valid first baseman every June seems a small step toward progress. Having a true first baseman with every affiliate would figure to upgrade the defense, and add a bat, as well. I remember reading once where Willie Mays noted first base, which he played some late in his career, isn’t easy to learn. It’s easier than center field, but many youngsters grow up playing their primary position and need eight or ten years to be good at it. The nuance of first base needs to be learned, which implies a learning curve.***One other topic for the day is the South Bend Cubs outfield. While Cole Roederer was the primary name to watch, the Cubs have four outfielders in Michiana that are playing to the level of the league. Two regulars from last season’s team are no longer professional hitters. Chris Singleton was released, and Brandon Hughes is being converted to pitching. This time around, Cole Roederer, DJ Artis, Nelson Velazquez, and Jonathan Sierra have all provided offense and defense worthy of the league.As usual, none are left-fielders by trade. Artis was a three-year college center fielder. Roederer was a compensation pick in last June’s second-round. Velazquez was selected in the fifth round in 2017 out of Puerto Rico. Jonathan Sierra has been a long-term international play since his signing in the 2015-2016 cycle.Sierra has a hit in his first 11 full-season games. His first homer was the team’s first. Artis has 11 walks at a time when second place on the team is a tie at three. Roederer’s numbers lag the rest of the foursome, but he’s driven in seven runs while being two years younger than the pitchers he faces. Velazquez leads the squad in average, slugging, and (unsurprisingly) OPS. By adding four outfield bats in the first 10 rounds, the Cubs addressed a need in the draft.(Third rounder Jimmy Herron is in Advanced-A. Second rounder Brennen Davis is still in extended spring training.Adding quality players from a variety of (styles and) positions in the early rounds of the draft, a team can balance out a draft class. 2018’s was as balanced as any in Epstein’s Cubs tenure — five pitchers, four outfielders, and three infielders. They won’t have twelve tries this time, but by attacking both offense and pitching in June, the Cubs could finally get where they should have been when the regime change happened. Few weak spots in the pipeline.